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Tesla FSD Test Drives

Tesla FSD in Europe: The future already feels great today – and it’s coming faster than ever thought


Disclaimer: Everything here, especially regarding markets, investing, or stocks, is solely my personal opinion. NONE of my content constitutes investment advice. You are always responsible for your own money and decisions.


Imagine: You get in the car, say “Home,” and calmly read emails. Once robotaxis become reality, the number of private cars will drop drastically – estimates suggest 70–80% fewer vehicles in cities. Cities worldwide like San Francisco (Bay Area), where thousands of supervised Tesla vehicles and other robotaxis are already operating, show this revolution is already underway.


Why only now? The clash of legal systems


Why has FSD been driving in the US for years while we’re still waiting? It’s due to the fundamental difference in legal systems:


  1. USA: “Permitted unless explicitly prohibited” (Self-Certification) Manufacturers like Tesla can deploy new tech on roads as long as existing bans aren’t violated. They self-certify safety.

    → Advantage: Extremely fast innovation. Real-world data is collected immediately, tech matures quickly. → Disadvantage: The road becomes the “lab.” Road users partly bear the risk of unforeseen errors.

  2. Europe: “Prohibited unless explicitly permitted” (Type Approval) Before a wheel turns, an authority must confirm the function is explicitly allowed (homologation).

    → Advantage: Very high safety and consumer protection. What’s approved usually works reliably. → Disadvantage: Massive innovation brake. Regulation often lags years behind technology; Europe falls behind technologically.


Regulation: Tesla is playing chess on multiple boards


  • Global data pool: Over 10 billion km driven with FSD. Tesla has the largest real-world data lead.

  • Europe moving fast (Spain): Spain first EU country to approve test phase for unsupervised FSD (with remote monitoring) under ES-AV framework. Major breakthrough.

  • Country-by-country approvals: Supervised demos running in Germany, France, Italy.

  • Unsupervised operation (USA): Tesla working hard to launch first commercial driverless operation in Austin.


The critical view: Risks of European approval


Despite progress, Europe’s approval process – driven by the precautionary principle – carries major risks:


  • Regulatory patchwork: National initiatives like Spain help, but final EU-wide approval (UN-R157 and follow-up laws) remains the bottleneck.

  • Overregulation: EU functional safety requirements are extremely high. Risk that FSD in Europe will be “castrated” and less capable than in the US.

  • Liability issues: Unclear liability rules in accidents slow final unsupervised approval.


What X users are experiencing live


The unanimous feedback from the first European testers is overwhelming. FSD navigates rush-hour traffic, complex turns, narrow alleys, and crowded parking lots more smoothly and safely than many human drivers in cities like Gießen, Düsseldorf, Munich, Bordeaux, Bologna, and Mérignac & Pessac.





Conclusion: FSD already feels significantly better in real European cities today than Level-2 systems from established premium manufacturers.


What this means for Tesla and other carmakers


Tesla is transforming from a carmaker with 15–20% gross margins into a software & robotaxi platform with 70–90% margins.


  • Moat #1: The data lead cannot be quickly caught – no other manufacturer has a fleet capable of generating comparable data.

  • Moat #2: Even if new AI approaches reduce the need for huge datasets, building a competitive vehicle fleet would still take years. Once regulation is granted, Tesla just flips a switch to scale its robotaxi fleet.


Software revenue with high margins will grow, as will service revenue. Increasing use of Cybercabs will lower service cost base and boost margins.


I wish it weren’t so, but just as Nokia and BlackBerry vanished into irrelevance when smartphones took over despite far worse battery life, in a few years no one will want to buy cars without full self-driving capability.


Bottom line: Anyone holding Tesla stock today is investing in what is likely the most profitable AI platform of the next decade – and we’re not even talking about Optimus yet. Cars without full autonomy will become niche collector items, their used-car values will crash, and manufacturers of such cars will either transform – or go bankrupt.

My own test drive – today in Parsdorf near Munich


In a few hours it’s my turn: Parsdorf and Vaterstetten. I’ll film roundabouts, narrow residential streets, and parking lots. If I record a video, I’ll upload the full drive to X.

Excited to see how relaxed 20–30 minutes of autonomous driving in typical Bavarian suburban chaos really feels.


The autonomous revolution is rolling – and Europe is finally on board.



 
 
 

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